Senegal’s domestic fuel reserves might be mainly used to supply electricity. Authorities count on that domestic gas infrastructure projects will come online between 2025 and 2026, supplied there is not any delay. The monetization of those significant power assets is on the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä performed in-depth research that analyse the economic impression of the varied gas-to-power strategies obtainable to Senegal. Two very different applied sciences are competing to meet the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very vital system value differences between the 2 major gas-to-power technologies the country is currently contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are in reality a lot better suited than mixed cycle gas generators to harness energy from Senegal’s new gas assets cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total cost variations between the two technologies might attain as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on scenarios.
Two competing and really different technologies
The state-of-the-art energy combine fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality scenarios to determine the cost optimal approach to ship new era capacity for a specific nation, exhibits that ICE and CCGT applied sciences present significant cost differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally confirmed and reliable, they are very totally different when it comes to the profiles in which they can function. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, the place it could perform at 90% load factor at all times. On the opposite hand, versatile ICE expertise can function efficiently in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other generation technologies that can make up the country’s vitality combine.
In ไดอะแฟรม ซีล reveals that when working in an electrical energy community of limited size similar to Senegal’s 1GW national grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably expand the community capacity could be extremely expensive in all possible situations.
Cost differences between the technologies are defined by a number of elements. First of all, sizzling climates negatively influence the output of fuel generators more than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated entry to low-cost domestic fuel, the operating prices turn into much less impactful than the investment costs. In different phrases, as a end result of low gasoline prices lower working costs, it is financially sound for the country to rely on ICE power crops, which are less expensive to construct.
Technology modularity additionally performs a key role. Senegal is predicted to require an additional 60-80 MW of technology capacity each year to have the flexibility to meet the rising demand. This is way decrease than the capacity of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that should be in-built one go, leading to unnecessary expenditure. Engine power plants, however, are modular, which means they are often built exactly as and when the country needs them, and further prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin shows that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT vegetation at the expense of ICE-gas, it’ll lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional cost for the system by 2035. The value distinction between the technologies may even improve to 350 million USD in favor of ICE expertise if Senegal additionally chooses to construct new renewable energy capability inside the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The development of gasoline infrastructure is a complex and prolonged endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, causing gasoline provide disruptions that will have an enormous financial influence on the operation of CCGT vegetation.
Nigeria knows one thing about that. Only last year, significant gasoline provide points have triggered shutdowns at a variety of the country’s largest gas turbine energy vegetation. Because Gas turbines operate on a steady combustion course of, they require a constant supply of gasoline and a secure dispatched load to generate consistent energy output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting an excellent strain on the overall system. ICE- ไดอะแฟรม , are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their flexible working profile, they have been in a position to preserve a a lot higher stage of availability
The examine took a deep dive to analyse the monetary impression of two years delay within the gasoline infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to take a position into gasoline engines, the worth of fuel delay could be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in extra value.
Whichever method you look at it, new ICE-Gas era capacity will decrease the entire price of electrical energy in Senegal in all attainable scenarios. If Senegal is to fulfill electricity demand growth in a cost-optimal means, a minimum of 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capacity will be required by 2026.
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